Binary event strategy二元事件策略
Binary events,
priced with evidence.
二元事件，
用證據定價。
BCLAW studies binary event markets: each position settles at 1 or 0. We publish the model's probability, the market price, and the reasoning behind every signal — so you can judge the edge yourself.
BCLAW 專注於二元事件市場：每個部位到期只會結算為 1 或 0。我們公開模型的機率、市場價格， 以及每個訊號背後的推理依據——讓你自己判斷優勢在哪裡。
01
Evidence first證據優先
Every signal carries the model's probability, the market's price, and a written rationale. No black boxes.
每個訊號都附上模型機率、市場價格與文字理由，不用黑箱。
02
Costs included計入成本
Edge is computed on the effective fill price, not the mid — trading fees and spread are never ignored.
優勢以實際成交價計算，而非中間價——手續費與價差不會被忽略。
03
Measured, not claimed以數據驗證
Signals are scored against real settlement outcomes: hit rate, Brier score, and calibration by probability bucket.
訊號以真實結算結果評分：命中率、Brier 分數，以及按機率分桶的校準度。
Risk disclosure風險揭露
Risk disclosure. Binary shares can expire worthless. The maximum loss is the full purchase price.
Past calibration does not guarantee future results. Nothing on this site is investment advice.
風險揭露。二元份額到期可能歸零，最大虧損為買入本金。歷史校準不代表未來表現，本網站內容不構成投資建議。